By Alastair  Leithead
    BBC News, Laiza, northern Burma   
    The sharp sound of  loading and unloading weapons and the barked orders of the  sergeant-major cut through the mountains of northern Burma as the young  cadets are put through their morning drills.   
    Their discipline is  good, their uniforms smart and there is little doubting their sense of  purpose or patriotism towards the red and green flag with crossed  machetes they proudly wear on their right shoulders.   
    They are the  next generation of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and say they are  not afraid to be the generation that fights in a civil war many fear  may soon be upon them.   
    "The Union of Burma was formed on the  basis of equality for ethnic people, but there has been inequality  throughout history and we are still being suppressed," said cadet Dashi  Zau Krang.   
    He is 26 and has a degree in business studies, but  says inequality has stopped him getting a good job and driven him to  join the military.   
    But he is not afraid.   
    "The Burmese army  may be the strongest in South East Asia, while we are very few, but God  will help us to liberate our people to get freedom and equality. This  is our responsibility," he said.   
    It is a war the Kachin people do  not want and one they cannot win.   
    But their generals believe a  17-year ceasefire could soon end as a Burmese army deadline approaches,  demanding the forces merge or disarm.   
    They have already refused,  and although their leaders are still pushing for a political solution,  their commanders are preparing for the worst when time runs out at the  end of February.   
    "I can't say if there will be war for sure, but  the government wants us to become a border guard force for them by the  end of the month," said the KIA's Chief of Staff, Maj Gen Gam Shawng.   
    "We  will not do that, or disarm, until they have given us a place in a  federal union and ethnic rights as was agreed in 1947."   
    The KIA  and its civilian organisation have been allowed to control a large  swathe of northern Burma as part of a ceasefire agreement with the  country's ruling generals.   
    Trade with China   
    They provide  power, roads and schools funded by taxes on the brisk trade from China  as well as the jade and gold mines and teak.   
    But now soldiers are  being recruited, veterans are being recalled and retrained, and an  ethnic army is preparing to fight perhaps the biggest military force in  South East Asia.   
    On the car radio are freedom songs, and at one  of the training camps a course in traditional dance is being run -  cultural nationalism and propaganda is strong.   
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    A  BBC team travelled to an area in northern Burma controlled by the  Kachin army and its civilian arm, the Kachin Independence Organisation  (KIO).   
    We were taken to training camps and outposts, but could  not walk into Laiza town to talk to people on the street for fear of  being seen by an extensive network of Burmese or Chinese government  informers and spies.   
    It made forming a balanced view very  difficult, but the determination and planning of the military was clear.   
    High  on a vantage point above their headquarters, trenches are being dug and  tree trunks are being hauled and hewn into gun turrets piled high with  earth.   
    They can see the Burmese army positions from here and they  know this will be just one of the front lines if fighting breaks out.   
    A  well-oiled and highly polished large-calibre anti-aircraft gun is  produced, standing on a tripod in a bunker overlooking the lush jungle  valley.   
    Guerrilla war   
    The gleaming gun is a statement, a  display for the visitors, but the small metal plane stencilled on the  sights looks woefully optimistic.   
    They are organised and say they  have heavy weapons, but we did not see them.   
    There are around  two dozen ethnic groups in Burma, mostly scattered around its borders,  and the biggest have been in various states of ceasefire or civil war  over the past few decades.   
    The KIA is one of the biggest. Their  commanders say it includes 10,000 regular troops and 10,000 reservists,  but it is impossible to know for sure.   
    The Burmese army is huge.  It has an air force of sorts and artillery, and the KIA knows the only  way to survive will be to withdraw into the jungle and fight a guerrilla  war of attrition.   
    But civil war would create tens of thousands  of refugees and create regional instability.   
    "If we are attacked  the other ethnic groups will support us, as they know the same could  happen to them," Gen Gam Shawng explained.   
    The nearby Wa ethnic  group has tens of thousands of troops and resources funded by drug  smuggling, and we were told a deal with them had been agreed.   
    Whether  civil war comes here is now up to the Burmese government.   
    If  they use this election year to solve what they see as the "problem" of  the ethnic groups they will have a fight on their hands, and the region  will have to deal with the consequences.